The Death of Hollywood- Guest Post Zac Martin


This is a guest post from Zac Martin at Pigs Don't Fly.


I think my readers are starting to get over the number of deaths I've predicted recently. Television is the big one, but newspapers, magazines, home phones, Gen X and books have all made my hit list. So when Juju kindly asked me to write a guest post I jumped at the chance to vent another death without annoying my usual audience.

This week, it's the cinema we'll be writing a eulogy for.

The first fatal sign was Dr Horrible, an online and highly successful series I wrote about last July. And now the wound that won't stop bleeding is The Hunt for Gollum. With a budget of just £3,000 and a lot of volunteers and hard work, a team of independent directors have created a 38 minute prequel to the Lord of the Rings trilogy that could be mistaken for Peter Jackson's work. Well worth half and hour of your time, even if you're not a Lord of the Rings geek.

It was released exclusively online this week for free with the intent of being a movie "by fans for fans" and therefore is completely not for profit. However if it weren't for the legal issues and it was their intention, monetising it would not have been a problem.

This is UGC at its greatest. Independent, low budget, entertaining content produced at a level on par with the terrible Wolverine movie I watched at the cinema last night.

RIP Hollywood.

324 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 324   Newer›   Newest»
meglet said...

Dr Horrible is brilliant!

returnon said...

This is thoughtless conjecture. You misguidedly take one example and call it a smoking gun?

Dr Horrible may not have been made by a studio, but it was certainly made by dream factory denizens. Joss Whedon, Neil Patrick Harris and Nathan Fillon did Dr Horrible as a lark while the writer's strike had everyone either carrying a sandwich board or twiddling their digits.

Hollywood doesn't intend to repeat the mistake the music industry made. Hulu is predominantly studio owned. They've been testing the new media waters for some time with noble failures like Quarterlife and Gemini Division, both of which were brand funded.

I agree that Wolverine was a steaming pile of mutant shit, but every US Summer sees a few stinky tentpoles. Wolverine opened below expectations and had a precipitous 68% box office drop the following weekend. With Twitter, movies now more than ever live or die by word of mouth. The Dark Knight became a cultural phenomenon last year on word of mouth. Hollywood now has another reason to lift its game.

International theatrical revenues have grown year on year since 2005. Check out the US yearly receipts 2008 $9.78 billion
2007 9.629 billion
2006 9.138 billion
2005 8.832 billion
And this year's monthly receipts are up on last year's.

New 3D technology is giving audiences another reason to go to the movies. 3D flicks draw bigger audiences with every release. Crap as it was, Journey to the Center of the Earth largely owes its box office success to those migraine inducing glasses. In 2008, 3D added contributed $1b to the years US theatrical grosses. James Cameron's Avatar, coming out later in the year, looks set to double that.

For something that's dying, Hollywood looks pretty healthy to me.

Zac Martin said...

@ returnon

Doesn't everything start with one smoking gun?

And what you call "looking healthy" I call "struggling to keep up, outdated and desperate to try anything to stay relevant and alive".

While you raise some interesting points, I think its death is inevitable although certainly not too soon.

Ben Shepherd said...

zac - i think you're right off here. in saying that i have some experience working on a pretty major theatrical account for the past 2-3 years.

AU box office is up year on year and will thrive during recessionary times if recent history is anything to go by.

plus the film industry are some of the better, forward thinking and sensible users of digital from all categories I've worked across. they by no means are repeating the mistakes of their idiot cousins in the music biz.

sure, no one looks awesome or future thinking by predicting that things are going to stay the same ... but irregardless the movie industry in a revenue sense is still pretty bouyant and people still like going to the pictures.

i think at times we need to look beyond the medium and look at the wider experience. the movies is a social, entertaining night out and escape. for most people the movie content is not that important.

Stan Lee said...

"...when Juju kindly asked me to write a guest post I jumped at the chance to vent another death without annoying my usual audience."

I would've thought the "audiences" were pretty similar.

returnon said...

Hollywood has always struggled to keep up. In fact every company and industry should constantly struggle to keep up. Google and Apple just make struggling to keep up look effortless!

In the late 50's the television explosion was seen as the death of cinema. The same mass proliferation of DVD and home theater was also seen as the bell's toll. Now its online video and bit torrent piracy. All smoking guns, all will simply force change in the film industry.

All my filmmaker friends are in agreement that cinema will fundamentally remain for the same reason Ben mentioned. There is nothing quiet like the communal experience of cinema. I have a freakin sweet home cinema, but I could fill my living room with all my friends and still not come close to the almost psychic phenomenon of quality storytelling experienced with a hundred strangers.

You complain about Wolverine, but the writing was on the wall. The reviews were unanimous, a twitter search would have painted a similarly negative picture. Cynical cash grabs like that I have no qualms about illegally downloading, but films like The Dark Knight, No Country for Old Men, The 40 Year Old Virgin, Children of Men, Pan's Labyrinth I will gladly pay to see and will buy the BluRay after.

Having said all that, Dr Horrible is brilliant. A new media channel is a welcome competitor for my eyes and ears. Its actually a pretty exciting time to be a filmmaker, there are more ways now to tell a story than ever before.

Bones Lawley said...

No matter how many Tv screens I hook up to eachother I'll never have a house high enough to be a cinema screen. The sound is of course awesome too (at the right places), so you can't replicate that. as mentioned, non headache inducing 3D has given the industry another spurt of life, and there's plenty of potential there. might see more arthouse movies openly hitting the internet and or Internet Protocol Television in the future from cinema release dates, because the places you can see those generally have fairly average sound and have smaller screens. But hollywood still belongs on the silver screen and should do for a long time.

Anonymous said...

"This is UGC at its greatest. Independent, low budget, entertaining content produced at a level on par with the terrible Wolverine movie I watched at the cinema last night."

So the LOTR prequel you were ranting and raving about, is in fact terrible?

Zac Martin said...

@ Stan Lee

Perhaps similar, but we have different numbers so there's a bit of difference. Also, I think Juju would get a lot of readers from areas other than blogs linking in, unlike me.

@ Ben Shepherd & Bones Lawley

I do see your points and they are very good arguments. My only come back would be to suggest the nostalgia you both place on meeting friends or viewing on the big screen doesn't carry across to the next generation, at least not to the same degree. The fact that people are downloading movies for free is an indicator of this.

@ Anonymous

Wolverine was extremely well produced. ;] But yes, I sacrificed sentence structure for a gag. Shame.

MrTruffle said...

I predict a death to "death predicting" blog posts :)

Hollywood is not dying it's just being safer.

Ben Shepherd said...

"My only come back would be to suggest the nostalgia you both place on meeting friends or viewing on the big screen doesn't carry across to the next generation, at least not to the same degree. The fact that people are downloading movies for free is an indicator of this."

Don't agree. It's not nostalgia it's a basic social need.

Downloading movies illegally or for free has nothing to do with people physically going to the cinema ... it is a by product of their want to have everything available instantly. If the next generation aren't that interested in going to the movies, how come so many movie releases target this audience?

Zac - some advice - you need to stop assuming that everyone is like you who is within a similar age range. It's an easy mistake to make sure (moast people in marketing/advertising make it) but a dangerous one.

Zac Martin said...

@ Ben Shepherd

The generation that will kill Hollywood aren't old enough to be downloading movies/buying tickets to see movies. I think that's a really important point.

And good point about me assuming everyone is like me. Although I go to the movies at least once a month and am rather proud of my authentic DVD collection. I personally would hate to see Hollywood die.

Of course, this is a deliberately provocative post. Unfortunately the nature of blogging is that not many people comment if it's not. And without comments there's no discussion and that's what I'm ultimately trying to achieve.

Thanks Ben.

Kate Richardson said...

Not all films should make it to the cinema. Not all discussions are worth having.

returnon said...

Zac, your admission of provocation has me feeling like a condescending school teacher! I should have known the guy who delineated the four quadrants of the blogsphere was too intelligent to make a judgment call without some ulterior motive. Should have also seen the "Joker" tact for provoking discussion.

But do you think its a shame that blogging like a barfly on a drunken tirade is one of the most effective means of encouraging comment? Given my own drunken tendencies, I've tried to maintain reasonable discourse in my own blog. But I'm starting to wonder whether a pint of moonshine is what my blog needs to make it a discussion instead of a lecture?

AKTIFMAG said...

Yeah, cinema and TV are dead.

Good one.

Anonymous said...

television is not dead. tivo died before it was born

Brent Friedman said...

Need to refute something said by returnon: "They've been testing the new media waters for some time with noble failures like Quarterlife and Gemini Division, both of which were brand funded."

Actually, Gemini was only partially funded by our brand integration deals. We also received significant digital distribution monies from NBC and Sony, as well as licensing money for a mobile game and digital comic. Additionally, Gemini garnered mostly positive reviews, retained an incredible 60% of its audience from Ep 1 thru Ep 50, and the venture was profitable. Forget nobility - if that's failure, we'll take it every time!

returnon said...

Thanks Brent, I stand corrected, I've checked out Gemini Division and its pretty awesome. The brand embedding is organic enough you don't notice it, and I look for it cause I believe its the way of the future. I should do more research before simply rattling off, I based that off one article!

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